Two pages and no one has guessed the real reason for the low Cal attendance:

IRVINE

I might naively fly to Texarkana for the thrill and challenge of Nationals. A guy from Colorado who'd ridden in that hot summer dustbin before might reasonably choose not to drive all weekend to race Nat's in hell.

I've been to Irvine. I imagine that a lot of NorCal/NV dudes would just as soon drive 8-10 hours to Irvine for a race as chew off their own leg. Especially so when the Carrera, Patterson and Esparto beckon locally.

I'll speak for myself ... my entire goal for the season was to upgrade in time to race that Pro/1/2 race at the Carrera. With the screaming crowds and the stellar field and the purple sky and the strobe of flashbulbs and THAT TURN with THAT HAYBALE, (and with Mikey on the mic, of course), the Carrera was my most thrilling race experience, and my season's goal was to have the privilege to join in the big event.

Of course I'm a regional guy, Kevin, and my disdain for Orange County is profound. Maybe I should just take a deep breath of our clean NorCal air, fly my liberal ass down to John Wayne (or is it Charlton Heston) Airport, and go race my bike in the Big O.C. with a dream of getting my face on cyclingnews.com ...

Naaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhh!!!! :wink:

...Kevin, the balls out keirin racer with the shiny top tube, pretending to know about roadie stuff...

golden

Ernesto just couldn't corner or sprint very well, and he was bitter about it.

justin wrote:Do I not count as a roadie?

For an answer to this we turn to the literature

"There are only three cycle sports: stage races, road races, and circuit races of at least 10 km per lap; all the rest are merely games."
~Ernesto Hemingway (apocryphal)

justin wrote:KevinMetcalfe wrote:While San Rafael is a great race, any serious roadie who even has to think twice in choosing that vs nationals isn't really a serious roadie.

But wouldn't serious crit scum stay for the Carrera? Do I not count as a roadie? This would be a huge revelation. I'd have to call up all the mountain and 'cross guys who've used that name on me and let them know they were mistaken.

Or maybe I just don't count as serious.

I know you're just playing along, but...

My definition goes as follows:

The ultimate goal for any up and coming "serious roadie" is to race professionally in Europe. The Tour, worlds, Olympics, Flanders, Roubaix, etc.

There are various routes to that goal. National team trips to Europe, doing well at NRC stage and road races, Elite nationals, etc.

Generally, the path will lead through a smaller D3 or D2 team and then hopefully on to the big time.

As "crit scum" a rider can get a contract with a D2 or D3 team. Healthnet or BMC, etc. will be glad to have a rider who can win races like San Rafael. But winning San Rafael or Manhattan Beach, etc. is not going to get you a call up by Quick Step.

A "crit scum" rider (and I use that term lovingly) can be extremely serious about what they are doing and certainly make a living by riding their bike. But their chances of making it to the "big show" are very small, unless they start doing well in... Road Races.

BTW, tell your dirt oriented friends they've got it all wrong. From what I've been told, the proper term is "tar head". :-)

Kevin

Juniors reg numbers don't look that much smaller to me than past years, overall. Maybe the fact that Nationals info was so long in coming this year dissuaded some parents, who usually want to be able to get their summer plans made before the middle of June. And having it in August has made the season very long for some. The devoted kids (and families) will go whenever Nationals is held but parents who just sort of put up with their kids' obsession are bound to get a little tired after six months of getting up at 4-5 am to get their kids to 8 am races 2-3 hours away from home. And I hope to be proven wrong, but maybe the locals know how lame the juniors Nationals courses look--at least from what little info we've been able to get about them. I'm not complaining (much) though. my son can't wait, especially after Gold Nugget--the other race he was most looking forward to this year--was cancelled.

Quote:Kind of like when that guy named Floyd won the tour but was listed in the USAC database as a Cat 5.

without a patch that guy might ride like a Cat5.

KevinMetcalfe wrote:While San Rafael is a great race, any serious roadie who even has to think twice in choosing that vs nationals isn't really a serious roadie.

But wouldn't serious crit scum stay for the Carrera? Do I not count as a roadie? This would be a huge revelation. I'd have to call up all the mountain and 'cross guys who've used that name on me and let them know they were mistaken.

Or maybe I just don't count as serious.

KevinMetcalfe wrote:casey wrote:OK so how does a 13 year old from VA get to be a Cat 1 on the RD, Cat 2 on the track and Cat 1 in cross??????

Either one of his parents is the district rep, or they have some dirt on the district rep. :-)

Kevin

Cat 1 upgrades come from the USAC regional Reps not the local people. Even stranger there is no history of upgrade for the rider and he has had a license for just over a year. Also he only got second in a local 10-12 race. I think this is a mistake in the system. Kind of like when that guy named Floyd won the tour but was listed in the USAC database as a Cat 5.

casey wrote:OK so how does a 13 year old from VA get to be a Cat 1 on the RD, Cat 2 on the track and Cat 1 in cross??????

Either one of his parents is the district rep, or they have some dirt on the district rep. :-)

Kevin

In going though the database re the Cat 1 men in the country is see that

The youngest CAt 1 is a 13 year old
The oldest Cat 1 is 77

there are 416 Cat 1s under 30
There are 589 Cat 1s who are 30-39
There are 272 Cat 1s who are 40-49

OK so how does a 13 year old from VA get to be a Cat 1 on the RD, Cat 2 on the track and Cat 1 in cross??????

casey wrote:Just as an fyi there are 1315 Cat 1 men in the country, 138 of those Cat 1s live in S CA/NV and 125 live in N CA/NV.

Holy cow! Who ISN'T a Cat !? :-)

Any idea if we have a greater percentage of Cat 1's now vs. say, 10-15 years ago?

Kevin

Just as an fyi there are 1315 Cat 1 men in the country, 138 of those Cat 1s live in S CA/NV and 125 live in N CA/NV.

A couple more points.

While San Rafael is a great race, any serious roadie who even has to think twice in choosing that vs nationals isn't really a serious roadie.

Doing well at Elite nationals is all about getting noticed and stepping up to a higher level. If you are trying to make a career in cycling and stepping up to maybe a D3 team in the US as a stepping stone to bigger and better things then you don't even thing about San Rafael.

A 2mi TT would have very little correlation to somebody's ability to do well in a 160km road race championship. While a 55km heat will still allow somebody who is slightly weaker to qualify for the final, at least it test the same skills that are required in the road race. Road tactics, climbing, maybe echelon riding if it's windy, etc.

Kevin

I rode elite nationals in 1987 on the Morgal Bismark course in Boulder. There were something like 300 starters and it was a bit of a mess. The following two years in Spokane and Park City they had heats that were about 30 miles long. Personally, I liked it and thought that it was relatively easy to get through to the final. Certainly better than fighting with 300 lunatics in the biggest race of the year.

Also I think that USAC is reacting to the problems they had in previous years in Seven Springs where lots of good riders didn't get in because of field limits. Being quick with online registration shouldn't be the primary reason you got into nationals! And with something like 400 cat 1's that's not going to narrow it down either.

I wonder how much it has to do with geography. I suspect that the number of elite riders who were within a reasonable driving distance to Seven Springs was much greater than the number within that same driving distance to SoCal. It's one thing to be an okay cat 1 rider and drive 6-8 hours to nationals and another thing to have to shell out another $500-$1000 to fly out (plus $100 for your bike each way).

The numbers at masters nationals in Louisville were pretty low also. I got a reasonable fare by taking the red eye flight, but I know guys who paid something like $1300 to fly from the Bay Area to Louisville. Your average cat 1 going to elite nationals is less likely to be able to afford that kind of air fare than your average masters racer.

Gas, air fare, the economy, etc. are probably all factors in keeping the numbers down.

BTW, they had scheduled time for heats in Louisville, but the numbers were such that it wasn't needed.

Kevin

After a quick look at the Elite field, looks like close to half of the riders are from California, or at least teams based in California.... including 13 CalGiant riders. Dunno about the rest of the fields.

I for one am not real happy about the qualifying heats. Any idea how they will be running those? If it's what I think, it'll be interesting to have guys sprinting for 60th place, and the 61st place guy ends up being out $80 for a 55k race that means nothing.

If USAC is concerned about the quality of the field and giving deserving riders a starting spot, why not have a 2 mile TT on a stock road bike, and then take the top 120 riders and their registration money. Looks to me to be a money grab instead.

The junior fields also have low representation from NCNCA. Here are the crit numbers, lower numbers than our state championships.

JR 10-12 = 6/42 JRW 10-12 = 1/9
JR 13-14 = 7/52 JRW 13-14 = 2/23
JR 15-16 = 11/76 JRW 15-16 = 1/17
JR 17-18 = 10/178 JRW 17-18 = 0/22

$85 entry fee-wow!

The field sizes seem normal to me, especially with more than a week to go for pre-reg.

I think the short answer, at least for me, is that the Carrera de San Rafael is on that same weekend. For Bay Area racers, a big-money, awesome twilight crit in San Rafael is way more enticing than doing 55k Heats in order to qualify for the 160k Elite Men's RR way down there in Irvine.

Poor scheduling, I guess.